Seasonal demand forecasting is a challenge faced by every brand expanding into new territories. Every country has its own trading peaks, consumer expectations, and buying behaviours; if you don’t plan for them, you risk tying up capital in the wrong stock or disappointing customers with out-of-stock notices.
What drives order surges in one market may not even register in another, presenting challenges when forecasting eCommerce demand across international territories.
For example...
The lesson here? Expanding globally means learning multiple new calendars, each with unique fulfilment and marketing demands.
Without effective seasonal demand forecasting in place across your market regions, you risk:
These risks become truth every day for eCommerce businesses across the globe, often resulting in financial or reputational damage. For example, 69% of shoppers abandon their purchase if an item is out of stock, with stockouts costing retailers $1 trillion globally every year.
Ideally, your business wants to contribute as little as possible to these figures.
International growth isn’t just about getting your products into new countries; it’s also about creating resilient systems and processes that flex with local demand on a global scale.
Some of the key ingredients for this include:
Having a clear framework in place makes global expansion a little less daunting. Here are some tips to strengthen your seasonal demand strategy.
Every territory has its own peaks. With local expertise, you’ll better understand demand patterns and avoid mistiming launches or missing opportunities.
Tip: Map out each region’s retail calendar for at least 12 months and overlay it with your own product seasonality. Don’t forget to lean on local expertise, likely through your fulfilment partner.
Guess = mess. Spreadsheets and gut instinct don’t cut it in international eCommerce. Reliable seasonal demand forecasting tools use historical sales patterns to better predict demand, reducing over- and under-stocking issues.
Tip: Choose a forecasting system that provides short, mid, and long-term outlooks, as well as packaging data into easily digestible formats.
Shipping everything from your home market might work at first, but it isn’t a scalable method of cross-border growth. Strategically placing stock across an international network of fulfilment centres keeps you close to your customers, reducing shipping costs and streamlining returns.
Tip: Run some “what if?” scenarios, such as: ‘What if demand in Germany doubles over Christmas?’ How fast could you move stock if this happened? The right platform should make the answer to this straightforward.
One courier alone won’t guarantee performance in every country, even if they’ve worked well for you back home. Carrier diversification spreads risk, allowing you to quickly pivot if things go wrong.
Tip: Partner with a fulfilment provider that has strong carrier relationships and an international presence. They’ll be able to advise you on best practices across multiple regions.
When you’re navigating demand, communication is key. Marketing campaigns without operational alignment are a recipe for disaster, so ensure to keep your fulfilment provider in the loop if you’re planning on boosting order volumes through discounts or promotions.
Tip: Treat your fulfilment partner as an extension of your team. If they can’t handle the increase in demand, then it could be time to switch.
Returns are part and parcel (pardon the pun) of eCommerce. When you scale internationally, returns can become particularly costly, especially if you’re shipping everything from your home market. Setting up in-country returns hubs not only reduces costs, but builds trust with customers who want a localised process.
Tip: Treat reverse logistics as part of the customer experience. Communicate returns terms clearly, make return labels simple, and process refunds quickly. After all, 84% of UK shoppers won’t purchase from a retailer again following a bad returns experience.
Seasonality in new territories doesn’t have to translate to risk. With smart technology, a clear strategy, agile fulfilment networks, and a partner experienced in global eCommerce growth, international demand planning becomes a business advantage.
By mastering seasonal demand forecasting and aligning operations with local expectations, brands can unlock true cross-border eCommerce growth.