Thriving through Black Friday 2025: Our expectations and predictions

Black Friday is fast approaching, and if the past few years have taught us anything, it's that the demand for fast, efficient fulfilment isn’t slowing down. In fact, this year, we’re gearing up for what we expect to be the busiest season yet.

We’re not ones to spread fear and create panic, but getting your affairs in order before this period begins should take precedence over anything else.

This isn’t your usual Black Friday warning

We’re pretty confident you’ll have seen your fair share of Black Friday warnings, hints, tips, and predictions – but we’re not just here to poke at your anxiety with a big stick. We’re laying down the facts and giving you a plateful of food for thought. 

The landscape has evolved significantly since the days when Black Friday was all about the midnight stampede in stores. Now, it’s more about how fast consumers can fill their online baskets while sipping their morning brew (or after-work Baileys, whatever floats your boat. It is nearly Christmas, after all).

Black Friday has become a largely online event, where consumers expect lightning-fast deliveries, simple checkout experiences, and clear communication about stock levels and return policies. Not asking for much, huh? Retailers who can meet these expectations will come out on top, while those who can’t will risk losing valuable customers to competitors. It’s a fight to the death (okay, maybe we’re exaggerating, but still. It’s really important you get it right).

This year, we’re expecting a continuation of several key trends, but here are the main ones we think will affect our clients:

Mobile shopping dominance

More shoppers are making purchases on their phones. Although Millennials still struggle with the idea of making those ‘big purchases’ on their phones, they’re leaning into mobile shopping like their Gen Z counterparts. Optimising for mobile shopping and ensuring that fulfilment systems can handle the increased volume is essential. Trends happen overnight; be prepared to meet that demand.

Did you know? Smartphones captured 55% of eCommerce transactions last year, with mobile commerce expected to grow at 23.5% CAGR by 2030.

Sustainability and ethical shopping

Consumers are increasingly aware of their carbon footprint and are opting for brands that use eco-friendly packaging and carbon-neutral delivery services. For many, the festive season is a time to put these practices into action. We’ve heard even Santa is going green (and not just in terms of the elves’ outfits).

Did you know? 56% of 16-34-year-olds say a product, service, or brand's environmental impact is more important to them now compared to a year ago.

Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL)

Or as we like to call it, ‘Try Now, Pay Never’ (trademark pending). With financial uncertainty still looming, BNPL services continue to grow, and shoppers will likely take advantage of these flexible payment options – especially around November and December. Having multiple payment options in place before Black Friday can help attract consumers that might not have considered you previously.

Did you know? 380 million people use BNPL services globally, with this number set to increase to 670 million by 2028. And, as of 2025, 42% of UK adults have used BNPL services at some stage.

The social commerce boom

Once upon a time, shoppers scrolled for inspiration and bought elsewhere. Now, they scroll and buy in the same place (right after the latest 'funny dogs compilation' has finished). Social commerce has officially gone mainstream thanks to platforms like TikTok, meaning Black Friday eCommerce isn't just your website anymore. It's about preparing for unpredictable spikes and your social checkout being as smooth as your product videos. Good luck out there, soldier.

Did you know? Social commerce sales were projected at £7.4 billion in 2024, with this figure set to rise to £15.7 billion by 2028.

Preparing for peak (or how to avoid a Black Friday meltdown)

Over the past few months, we've been flat-out stocking up in preparation. Across our international fulfilment network, our customers’ inventories are as ready as the reindeers the night before the Big Day, and we’re anticipating a spike in orders that’ll make 2020 look like a gentle warm-up.

With our smart forecasting tools (powered by the fulfilmentcrowd platform) predicting another record-breaking year, we’re well-prepped to help our customers avoid a Black Friday meltdown.

Taking you back to last year, we registered a 48% YoY volume increase and shipped at 99.3% SLA over the Black Friday/Cyber Monday weekend (not too shabby). This year, we’re planning for similar success and aiming to break even more records – and not just the parcel-packing ones.

A major shift this year is the rise of hybrid shopping, where customers blend their in-store and online experiences. With tools like Click & Collect becoming increasingly popular, we’re expecting a surge in last-minute online orders that need lightning-fast processing.

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Meeting Black Friday expectations

Now that we know what’s coming, how can fulfilmentcrowd help eCommerce businesses not just survive, but thrive during Black Friday 2025?

1. Efficient, scalable fulfilment solutions

With the volume of orders expected to surge, fulfilmentcrowd’s flexible fulfilment network is designed to handle spikes in demand with ease. From receiving stock to processing orders at lightning speed, fulfilmentcrowd’s smart tech ensures that parcels are picked, packed, and dispatched efficiently. Our international network means businesses can offer fast delivery times across the globe, no matter where their customers are shopping from.

2. Real-time inventory and stock management

One of the biggest frustrations for customers is finding out that the product they want is out of stock – or worse, buying it only to find it’s unavailable. With fulfilmentcrowd’s intelligent stock management tools, retailers can monitor their inventory in real-time and avoid over-selling or under-stocking popular items. This ensures customers know exactly what’s available, improving their shopping experience and increasing the likelihood of repeat business.

3. Sustainable packaging and carbon-neutral delivery options

As sustainability continues to be a priority for shoppers, we're committed to reducing the environmental impact of logistics. Our centres offer eco-friendly packaging options and carbon-neutral shipping services, helping retailers stay competitive while appealing to ethically-minded consumers. Plus, we never put a spade in the ground to expand our capacity, instead making the most of unused warehouse space across the globe. A sustainable fulfilment process doesn’t just boost your brand image – it actually makes a difference.

4. Faster returns processing

The reality of Black Friday shopping is that returns are inevitable, especially with the rise of bracketing (when customers buy multiple sizes or colours of the same product, intending to return what doesn’t fit). fulfilmentcrowd’s efficient returns handling process ensures that unwanted items are processed and restocked quickly, so retailers can keep inventory levels up while maintaining customer satisfaction. The quicker and easier the returns process, the happier your customers will be.

5. Integration with leading ecommerce platforms

Our fulfilment solutions integrate with all major eCommerce platforms, including Shopify, WooCommerce, and Magento, so retailers can manage their fulfilment seamlessly without the need for complicated manual processes. This means that even when the Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and New Year rush hits, your business stays running smoothly.

Expansion for 2025 – and beyond

We haven’t just been busy packing parcels. Our international network has expanded yet again, with new fulfilment centres added to our network regularly – just think of it as countless baubles strategically placed on your company's Christmas tree. Most notably, we’ve opened new facilities in Australia and Ireland, and we’re currently working on new partner centres across the globe. This expansion means that no matter where your customers are, we’ve got fulfilment covered (and some fun trips planned too).

The power of automation

We’ve seen first-hand how automation is transforming the world of eCommerce, and Black Friday 2025 will be no different. From real-time stock updates to automated order processing, our fulfilment tech ensures everything runs like clockwork – all while cutting down on manual labour. The result? Fewer errors, faster turnarounds, and more time for you to focus on running your business, not chasing orders.

Predictions for Black Friday 2025

So, what can we expect from Black Friday 2025? For starters, predictions say that 30.7% of all retail spending in the UK will be online. As shoppers become savvier and demand instant gratification (seriously, who wants to wait?), we’re ready to meet those expectations with our tried-and-true formula.

Customers are also embracing small, independent brands over the eCommerce giants, meaning that many of the 250+ brands we work with are set to see their busiest Black Friday yet. Whether they’re selling home décor, beauty products, or those ever-elusive DIY tools, our clients are ready for the big day – and we’ll be there to help every step of the way.

Key Black Friday tips for 2025

Before we wrap up, here are some key tips to get you through this period with minimal damage.

1. Optimise your website and mobile experience. Ensure your website is mobile-friendly, has clear navigation, and is ready to handle the high volume of traffic.
2. Prepare for the last-minute shoppers. Stock up on bestsellers and be prepared for a wave of last-minute orders in the days leading up to Black Friday. Data is your best friend here. Don’t ignore it!
3. Offer early access to sales. Many consumers now expect early access to deals, so offering exclusive pre-Black Friday promotions can help spread out demand. It’s all about getting the timing right – too early and you risk annoying customers; too late and you’ve missed the boat.
4. Clear return policies: Ensure your returns process is as simple and fast as possible. Not only is this a deciding factor for many of your customers, it also gives you plenty of breathing room.
5. Communicate delivery timelines: Be transparent about shipping times and expected delivery dates to avoid customer frustration. There’s nothing worse than knowing grandma won’t be receiving that new foot spa for Christmas. Especially when you’re in charge of clipping her toenails.

Thrive – don’t just survive – this Black Friday

If there’s one thing we’ve learned over the years, it’s that Black Friday waits for no one. But with the right fulfilment strategy in place, you won't only survive, but thrive during the busiest shopping period of the year. And if your fulfilment can keep up during this period, you can rest easy knowing 2026 will start off pretty breezy.